Monday, March 27, 2006

Never bet on black again

If there is one highlight that I can take from my trip to Vegas, it is that I finally learned how to play craps, a game that had always intimidated me in the past. But after having played for nearly 10 hours over the course of the weekend (maybe more, who can remember) I just came to the realization that I underappreciated a relatively solid bet at the table.

That bet is the "Field" bet. It is a one time bet wherein you throw any amount of money on it and if the following numbers roll, you win: 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12. It pays double for the 2 and triple for the 12, with the others being even money payouts. At first, you would think this is a sucker's bet because the easiest numbers to throw are the 6, 7, 8, of which I placed many Come bets on or simple place bets on. But then I thought about it, here's the breakdown, I think:

To throw a 2, 3, 11 or 12, there's only one way that makes four chances.
To throw a 4, 9 or 10, there are two ways to throw each (i.e. 1+3 and 2+2 for four) that adds six more chances.
So there are 10 ways to win this bet.

On the opposite side:
To throw a 6, 7, or 8, there are three ways to throw each (i.e. 1+5, 2+4, 3+3 for six) that makes nine chances to win.
There are two ways to throw a that adds two more chances.
So there are 11 ways to lose this bet.

So, in total, you have a 10 out of 21 chance of winning, or 47.6%, plus there's a 9.5% chance (2 out of 21) that you'll win more than even money.

Compare this with someone betting on black in a roulette game. There you've got 18 black numbers, where you can win, and 18 red numbers where you'll lose. Plus you've got either a '0' or a '00' in there too. If a table has both, that means you have an 18 out of 38 chance of winning or 47.4% chance...and a 0% chance of winning more than even money.

So, now I know, and I pass this piece of info on to you.

Never bet on black again.

Oh, and here's another piece of is not your friend at the tables, even if it is free.

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